It seems that the United States may already have resigned itself to China’s imminent emergence as a “military superpower” — the term Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice used to describe it in a June 29, 2005 interview with the Wall Street Journal. For regardless of the niggardliness of its Tsunami aid effort, China is now the dominant power in Southeast Asia. How it became so should yield insights into its strategies for the rest of the globe.
In his National Security Strategy paper of September 2002, President Bush announced, “We must build and maintain our defenses beyond challenge,” an unmistakable declaration that U.S. defenses must be so awesome that no other country would even “challenge” them. At the same time, he pledged that he would be “attentive to the possible renewal of old patterns of great power competition. Several potential great powers are now in the midst of internal transition — most importantly Russia, India, and China.” And while he was hopeful about Russia and India, he could only admit that “China’s leaders have not yet made the next series of fundamental choices about the character of their state.”
In the latter months of 2005, the Bush administration remains agnostic on China’s direction. It is clear that China has no intention of competing with the United States in the global humanitarian aid sector, which in itself says volumes about the “character of their state.” Benevolence is not a quality that comes to mind as one ponders Beijing’s support for some of the world’s most despicable tyrants — from North Korea’s Kim Jong-il to Zimbabwe’s Mugabe, from Uzbekistan’s Karimov to the mullahs of Teheran and the genocidal regime in Khartoum — or notes that China’s closest ally in Southeast Asia has been the Burmese junta in Rangoon.
No doubt Chinese strategists believe countries like Sweden, Canada, and Denmark are more suited to compassionate policies. For a rising superpower in Asia, as Machiavelli noted in a different context in The Prince, “it is much safer to be feared than loved” because “men have less scruple in offending one who is beloved than one who is feared, for love is preserved by the link of obligation which, owing to the baseness of men, is broken at every opportunity for their advantage; but fear preserves you by a dread of punishment which never fails.”
One reason the United States is losing influence in Southeast Asia is because it is no longer feared. Of course, it isn’t much loved, either. Though its humanitarian compassion seems to be taken for granted — Americans can always be counted on to help in a disaster or crisis — its attention has been distracted from the region by military and terrorist challenges in the Middle East and nuclear blackmail from North Korea.
From a geostrategic standpoint, strong countries surround China. Japan and Korea lie to the east, Russia to the north, India to the west. The only outlet for Chinese imperial ambitions is Southeast Asia. Most Southeast Asians understand that China is rapidly becoming the predominant power in the region and already behave accordingly. Beijing’s diplomats have effectively translated China’s burgeoning economic clout into political influence, leaving in question the U.S. role in and commitment to the region, even with its traditional allies and friends.
If the United States hopes to avoid the emergence of a Beijing-dominated Southeast Asia and to shore up its eroding influence, Washington must quickly and firmly reengage the region on the diplomatic, economic, and defense fronts. Specifically, Washington must give priority to new free trade agreements (ftas) in the region, to fuller participation and leadership in other pacts such as the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (apec) forum and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), and to stronger bilateral anti-terrorism and disaster relief cooperation.
Singapore’s Senior Minister Goh Chok-Tong has publicly chided the U.S. for its disengagement from Southeast Asia. He noted in a June 9 speech that in the past decade China has successfully launched 27 separate ASEAN-China mechanisms at different levels, while 28 years after the U.S.-ASEAN dialogue was formalized in 1977, “there are currently only seven U.S.-ASEAN bodies and they meet only infrequently.”
The Pentagon and State Department must develop a toolbox of carrots and sticks to convince Southeast Asia that America is committed to President Bush’s goal of the “global expansion of democracy” and intends to defend its interests and those of its allies and friends in the region. The U.S. still maintains considerable influence in international development aid but, unlike China, has been reluctant to mix politics and economics. This reluctance should be reexamined. Judicious placement of U.S. military and naval assets, in consultation with allies, during times of predictable crisis — such as the East Timor violence in 1999, tensions in the Taiwan Strait, piracy in the Straits of Malacca, and political demonstrations in Burma — would reassure the region of America’s continued importance to its stability.
On the diplomatic front, the United States must reestablish cabinet-level strategic dialogues with America’s two senior allies in Asia, Japan and Australia, both essential to Southeast Asia’s security and prosperity. Also, the high-level “global dialogue” that Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick opened with China in August 2005 should be managed at a lower level.
What Beijing wants
In early 2000, Condoleezza Rice wrote, “China resents the role of the United States in the Asia-Pacific Region. This means that China is not a ‘status quo’ power but one that would like to alter Asia’s balance of power in its own favor. That alone makes it a strategic competitor, not the ‘strategic partner’ the Clinton administration once called it.”1
While Dr. Rice has become a bit less direct in her locution during her tenure as secretary of state, her observation remains valid. Johns Hopkins professor Francis Fukuyama, writing in the Wall Street Journal (March 1, 2005), sees a similar trend in China’s ambitions: “The Chinese know what they are doing: Over the long run, they want to organize East Asia in a way that puts them in the center of regional politics. They can succeed where [then-Malaysian Prime Minister Mohammed] Mahathir failed because they are an economic powerhouse capable of doling out favors.” Of course, they can also mete out sanctions.
In the view of numerous analysts, a desire to demonstrate to Asia that China, not Japan, is the dominant regional power was the animating force behind the government-organized anti-Japanese riots and boycotts of Japanese goods in the spring of 2005. It is clear that Beijing intends to become the predominant force in Southeast Asia by constructing a framework of relationships that place Beijing in positions of leadership and influence while isolating the United States from its traditional role and its allies in the region.
In his National Security Strategy paper of September 2002, President Bush announced, “We must build and maintain our defenses beyond challenge,” an unmistakable declaration that U.S. defenses must be so awesome that no other country would even “challenge” them. At the same time, he pledged that he would be “attentive to the possible renewal of old patterns of great power competition. Several potential great powers are now in the midst of internal transition — most importantly Russia, India, and China.” And while he was hopeful about Russia and India, he could only admit that “China’s leaders have not yet made the next series of fundamental choices about the character of their state.”
In the latter months of 2005, the Bush administration remains agnostic on China’s direction. It is clear that China has no intention of competing with the United States in the global humanitarian aid sector, which in itself says volumes about the “character of their state.” Benevolence is not a quality that comes to mind as one ponders Beijing’s support for some of the world’s most despicable tyrants — from North Korea’s Kim Jong-il to Zimbabwe’s Mugabe, from Uzbekistan’s Karimov to the mullahs of Teheran and the genocidal regime in Khartoum — or notes that China’s closest ally in Southeast Asia has been the Burmese junta in Rangoon.
No doubt Chinese strategists believe countries like Sweden, Canada, and Denmark are more suited to compassionate policies. For a rising superpower in Asia, as Machiavelli noted in a different context in The Prince, “it is much safer to be feared than loved” because “men have less scruple in offending one who is beloved than one who is feared, for love is preserved by the link of obligation which, owing to the baseness of men, is broken at every opportunity for their advantage; but fear preserves you by a dread of punishment which never fails.”
One reason the United States is losing influence in Southeast Asia is because it is no longer feared. Of course, it isn’t much loved, either. Though its humanitarian compassion seems to be taken for granted — Americans can always be counted on to help in a disaster or crisis — its attention has been distracted from the region by military and terrorist challenges in the Middle East and nuclear blackmail from North Korea.
From a geostrategic standpoint, strong countries surround China. Japan and Korea lie to the east, Russia to the north, India to the west. The only outlet for Chinese imperial ambitions is Southeast Asia. Most Southeast Asians understand that China is rapidly becoming the predominant power in the region and already behave accordingly. Beijing’s diplomats have effectively translated China’s burgeoning economic clout into political influence, leaving in question the U.S. role in and commitment to the region, even with its traditional allies and friends.
If the United States hopes to avoid the emergence of a Beijing-dominated Southeast Asia and to shore up its eroding influence, Washington must quickly and firmly reengage the region on the diplomatic, economic, and defense fronts. Specifically, Washington must give priority to new free trade agreements (ftas) in the region, to fuller participation and leadership in other pacts such as the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (apec) forum and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), and to stronger bilateral anti-terrorism and disaster relief cooperation.
Singapore’s Senior Minister Goh Chok-Tong has publicly chided the U.S. for its disengagement from Southeast Asia. He noted in a June 9 speech that in the past decade China has successfully launched 27 separate ASEAN-China mechanisms at different levels, while 28 years after the U.S.-ASEAN dialogue was formalized in 1977, “there are currently only seven U.S.-ASEAN bodies and they meet only infrequently.”
The Pentagon and State Department must develop a toolbox of carrots and sticks to convince Southeast Asia that America is committed to President Bush’s goal of the “global expansion of democracy” and intends to defend its interests and those of its allies and friends in the region. The U.S. still maintains considerable influence in international development aid but, unlike China, has been reluctant to mix politics and economics. This reluctance should be reexamined. Judicious placement of U.S. military and naval assets, in consultation with allies, during times of predictable crisis — such as the East Timor violence in 1999, tensions in the Taiwan Strait, piracy in the Straits of Malacca, and political demonstrations in Burma — would reassure the region of America’s continued importance to its stability.
On the diplomatic front, the United States must reestablish cabinet-level strategic dialogues with America’s two senior allies in Asia, Japan and Australia, both essential to Southeast Asia’s security and prosperity. Also, the high-level “global dialogue” that Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick opened with China in August 2005 should be managed at a lower level.
What Beijing wants
In early 2000, Condoleezza Rice wrote, “China resents the role of the United States in the Asia-Pacific Region. This means that China is not a ‘status quo’ power but one that would like to alter Asia’s balance of power in its own favor. That alone makes it a strategic competitor, not the ‘strategic partner’ the Clinton administration once called it.”1
While Dr. Rice has become a bit less direct in her locution during her tenure as secretary of state, her observation remains valid. Johns Hopkins professor Francis Fukuyama, writing in the Wall Street Journal (March 1, 2005), sees a similar trend in China’s ambitions: “The Chinese know what they are doing: Over the long run, they want to organize East Asia in a way that puts them in the center of regional politics. They can succeed where [then-Malaysian Prime Minister Mohammed] Mahathir failed because they are an economic powerhouse capable of doling out favors.” Of course, they can also mete out sanctions.
In the view of numerous analysts, a desire to demonstrate to Asia that China, not Japan, is the dominant regional power was the animating force behind the government-organized anti-Japanese riots and boycotts of Japanese goods in the spring of 2005. It is clear that Beijing intends to become the predominant force in Southeast Asia by constructing a framework of relationships that place Beijing in positions of leadership and influence while isolating the United States from its traditional role and its allies in the region.
